Estimate your 2026 federal tax refund or the amount you will owe, using the 2026 brackets, standard deduction and $2,200 child tax credit.
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With filing status: single, total 2026 income: wages, interest, side income $65,000, pre-tax 401(k), HSA and traditional IRA contributions $4,000, itemized deductions, if more than the standard deduction $0, children under 17 0, federal income tax withheld for the year $6,000, other tax credits $0:
Estimated refund: $860.00
Tax after credits $5,140.00 on taxable income $44,900.00 · top bracket 12% · effective rate 8.4% of AGI · withheld $6,000.00
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AGI = income − pre-tax contributions. Taxable income = AGI − the larger of the standard deduction ($16,100 single, $32,200 married filing jointly, $24,150 head of household) and your itemized deductions. Tax = the 2026 bracket rates (10% to 37%) applied to each slice of taxable income. Child tax credit = $2,200 per child under 17, reduced by $50 per $1,000 of AGI over $200,000 ($400,000 joint); the unused part is refundable up to $1,700 per child and 15% of earned income above $2,500. Refund = tax withheld + refundable credit − tax after credits.
Formula source: 2026 federal brackets, standard deduction and child tax credit from IRS Revenue Procedure 2025-32 and the IRS 2026 inflation-adjustment release. IRS Revenue Procedure 2025-32 – 2026 tax brackets and standard deduction (PDF) · IRS – tax inflation adjustments for tax year 2026 · IRS – child tax credit
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Standard deduction, no other credits:
| Household (2026 tax year) | Taxable income | Tax after credits | Refundable child credit | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single, $40,000, $3,000 withheld | $23,900 | $2,620.00 | $0.00 | Refund $380.00 |
| Single, $65,000, $4,000 pre-tax, $6,000 withheld | $44,900 | $5,140.00 | $0.00 | Refund $860.00 |
| Head of household, $55,000, 1 child, $3,500 withheld | $30,850 | $1,148.00 | $0.00 | Refund $2,352.00 |
| Married jointly, $90,000, 2 children, $6,000 withheld | $57,800 | $2,040.00 | $0.00 | Refund $3,960.00 |
| Married jointly, $150,000, 2 children, $14,000 withheld | $111,800 | $9,620.00 | $0.00 | Refund $4,380.00 |
| Single, $120,000, $15,000 withheld | $103,900 | $17,570.00 | $0.00 | Owe $2,570.00 |
The refund depends far more on withholding than on income: the single filer earning $120,000 owes money only because $15,000 was withheld on a $17,570 tax bill.
The IRS says most refunds for e-filed returns with direct deposit are issued within 21 days. Returns claiming the earned income credit or additional child tax credit are held until mid-February by law.
Usually because less tax was withheld from each paycheck, your income went up, or a credit you had before no longer applies. A refund is only the difference between what was withheld and what you owe.
It means you over-paid during the year and lent the money to the government interest-free. Adjusting your W-4 gives you that money in each paycheck instead.
No. It is an estimate using the 2026 brackets, standard deduction and child tax credit. For withholding, use the IRS Tax Withholding Estimator; your actual return decides the final number.
$16,100 for single filers, $32,200 for married couples filing jointly and $24,150 for heads of household, per IRS Revenue Procedure 2025-32.
The earned income tax credit, education credits, the saver's credit and the credit for other dependents are left out. Enter their total in "other tax credits" if you know it.
Sources: IRS – Tax Withholding Estimator · IRS – refunds · IRS – child tax credit